Elon Musk has decided to join the fierce debate on Twitter about whether general artificial intelligence (AGI), or AI’s ability to understand or learn any intellectual task that can be performed by a human present, about to happen.
He put it this way:
Of course, Musk’s tweets always have to be done with truckloads of salt. The world’s richest man is also known for some of the worst behavior on Twitter, from manipulating Tesla shares to giving’full support’ to Kanye West’s 2020 presidential race, not to mention the recent” will he or not? “him,” in reference to his deal to buy Twitter.
An open letter to Elon Musk and a $100,000 challenge
However, Musk’s comments, as usual, simply cannot be ignored. In a new post on his Substance, Gary Marcus, author of Rebooting. AI and a major (some say controversial) AGI assessment tool on Twitter, wrote an open letter to Elon Musk, $100,000 bet offer on AGI come before 2029.
Kevin Kelly, co-founder of LongBets, a “public arena for interesting, socially relevant, competitive predictions with numbers. Charity money is at stake . As a co-founder, I will give you all the help you might need to place this bet on Longest.
So far, he’s not surprised he hasn’t heard from Musk, but added that the Tesla CEO’s comments aren’t helpful in larger discussions aboutAI.
“Musk’s statements about AGI only accelerate the pace of current technology development, when we may need to take a step back to understand where we are and deal with difficult problems realistically. economics “, indicating that the most difficult problems involve setting up machines. reasons about the everyday world and have common sense.
An ‘avalanche of misinformation’ about AI
There’s a lot of AI hype and a lot of money invested, but invested in the wrong things like SLAB 2 and GPT3 are fun to play, but they have the potential to generate a stream of information. misinformed and does not really represent the really difficult problems of existing AI technologies, such as the problems of racial, social and gender inequality that have been documented by people like Dr. Abebe Birhane, Mozilla Trusted Lead AI Researcher.” Gary Marcus, author of Rebooting
There is likewise a herbal tendency to study AI, and AGI greater specifically, as “some thing magical,” This, he claimed, has deluded companies, corporations and authorities policymakers.
It leads human beings to assume AI as a one-size-fits-all generic solvent, which it isn’t. I like to inform corporations that AI is actually suitable right now inside the part of the curve in which you’ve got a number of schooling data, however now no longer so suitable withinside the lengthy tail.”
Overall, human beings have invested a top notch deal of cash into AI, primarily based totally on an unsound premise and a focal point on AGI . Being across the nook simply provides gas to that fire.” Things may alternate in fifty or maybe twenty years .Waiting for complete wholesale magic is unrealistic, coping with funding in AI method is sensible and now no longer mechanically believe press clippings.”
What artificial general intelligence won’t be able to do by 2029
Marcus’Substance’s new post, titled ” Dear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGI,” goes into detail about what Marcus actually thinks will happen in 2029.
“AGI is a problem of enormous scope, because intelligence itself is of a broad scope,” in the post, adding that five important things will not occur by the end of the decade:
- “In 2029, AI will not be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on.”
- “In 2029, AI will not be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about the plot.”
- “In 2029, AI will not be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen.”
- “In 2029, AI will not be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines from natural language specification or by interactions with a non-expert user. [Gluing together code from existing libraries doesn’t count.]”
- “In 2029, AI will not be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature written in natural language and convert it into a symbolic form suitable for symbolic verification.”
Waiting for Elon Musk to respond
it would be “terrific fun” if Musk actually responded to his challenge of a bet on whether AGI will come to fruition by 2029.
“It would be great to have a public debate, with or without cash on the line, The more the public understands about the realities and challenges of AI, the better.”